RANSOMWARE PROPAGATION MODELING IN INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS (ICS) NETWORKS
Subjects/Theme:
Ransomware, Industrial Control Systems, ICS Security, Malware Propagation, SIR Model, SEIR Model, Cyber-Physical Systems, Network SecurityDescription
Security and Privacy in AI Systems,
Edited By: Dr. Sunita Chaudhary, Dr. Joydeb Patra
ISBN (978-81-685212-9-2)
Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are critical components of modern infrastructure, including power grids, manufacturing plants, and water treatment facilities. With increasing connectivity and integration with IT networks, ICS environments have become vulnerable to cyber threats, particularly ransomware attacks. This paper presents a comprehensive modeling framework for ransomware propagation in ICS networks using epidemic-based models. We analyze the spread dynamics using Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) models adapted for ICS environments. The study evaluates key parameters such as infection rate, recovery rate, and network topology. Simulation results demonstrate that network segmentation, timely patching, and intrusion detection significantly reduce propagation speed. The proposed model provides insights for designing resilient ICS architectures and effective mitigation strategies.
